Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday.
Akio Toyoda Throws Cold Water On EV Dreams
Toyota President Akio Toyoda was in Las Vegas this week, but not to gamble or even catch Aerosmith’s residency (Toyoda is a known “Honkin’ on Bobo” fan). It’s the annual dealer meeting and our man in Aichi had some feels about this whole electrification thing going on. Per Automotive News: Toyota is still long on hydrogen and is absolutely correct that tossing EVs into developing markets, as we’ve discussed, ain’t gonna work yet. If you love Toyotas and want an EV, no worries, they’re still going to make plenty of those. “Some are racing to a finish line of all-electric,” he said in the prepared remarks released prior to his meeting with journalists. Toyoda is working in all markets and segments to reduce carbon emissions as rapidly as possible and “does not see a finish line until Toyota gets to carbon neutrality.”
That’s Not Gonna Stop New York From Joining California
California has decided to ban non-electrified car sales starting in 2035 which, it’s worth remembering, is about 13 years away. New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced yesterday that New York is following suit. In her statement: If this makes Ford build the plug-in hybrid Maverick then I’m here for it, frankly.
Harley LiveWire SPAC Raises Less Money Than Expected
SPAC, which stands for “So Much Money, Probably, Actually, Crap…” was one of those weird pandemic-era ideas wherein a company could skip the normal, difficult IPO process and go public real quick. It worked for a few companies, but has also failed for many others. Harley Davidson’s EV brand, LiveWire, was supposed to use a SPAC to bring in a ton of money for the company’s electrification ambitions. Did it work? Here’s Bloomberg on Tuesday: It’s Friday, let’s see how they closed yesterday… You know what. Maybe don’t look. After an initial surge, the shares fell 7.1% at 2:27 p.m. in New York, valuing the company at about $2 billion. LiveWire originally expected an equity value of $2.3 billion at close.
But It’s A Good Time For EV Buses
Citing a huge amount of demand, the EPA is going to basically double the amount of money given to local school districts to increase their electric bus fleets. From Cleveland.com: Absolutely. School buses, which park for long periods of time and run mostly identical and compact routes every day, are the ideal use case for electrification. Also, no one expects them to be light, so tossing some batteries under the floor doesn’t seriously impact performance of a vehicle you don’t want to be fast. […] “America’s school districts delivered this message loud and clear – we must replace older, dirty diesel school buses,” EPA Director Michael Regan said in a statement. “Together, we can reduce climate pollution, improve air quality, and reduce the risk of health impacts like asthma for as many as 25 million children who ride the bus every day.”
The Flush
Whelp, time to drop the lid on today’s edition of The Morning Dump. It’s Friday and I’m curious how you feel about electrification. Is it coming soon? A million years away? Is your current or next car going to be electric? I sincerely want a PHEV Maverick and would put down a deposit as soon as they offered one. Consider this my campaign announcement. D9 for Emissions King Of Planet Earth in 2023!!!! What Battery EV can I buy now from Toyota in the state where the majority of all EVs are sold (California)? This is an old man who either: 1. Sees Toyota’s future in developing markets not yet ready for electrification, 2. Doesn’t see the writing on the wall or 3. Is in denial about the future. Failing to have EVs now will mean that when more buyers go looking for EVs, they simply won’t look at Toyota. Very much agree though. Electric cars are here today. As of the last couple of years there’s viable options across multiple segments and brands. There’s big gaps, but they’re shrinking by the year. In order to make BEVs travel long distances at high speeds you have compromise durability, ground clearance, practical storage space, curb weight, etc. To make the most of the relatively low energy density of BEV batteries you need to make the cars very aerodynamic, make the drivetrains very efficient, and even then you still have to stuff an obscenely heavy amount of batteries in there for it to have a decently long range at highway speeds. In order to improve aerodynamics the automakers lower the cars lower than their ICE and ICE hybrid counterparts, and they make their cars more teardrop shaped which is the opposite of what you want for hauling stuff, just look at Subaru’s new (Toyota) BEV, it’s the ANTI-Subaru, with that stupid slanted hatch unless you’re hauling a lot of triangular shaped stuff that storage space is near useless. In order to improve drivetrain efficiency the drivetrains are lightened obscenely compromising on the durability of said drivetrain and more often than not low profile tires are used which compromises the durability of the tires, wheels, and drivetrain components. Even with all of these measures the automakers still have to stuff a ton or more of batteries into the vehicle to get to have decent range. The Aptera is promising but considering how the laws are currently there better be room for helmets in the cabin, because some states require you to wear helmets even in enclosed “motorcycles”. I think fun second cars should be BEVs, not main cars (for most people). How many people would have it worse if their Miata or their Wrangler was a BEV? They can drive it around town whenever they want for pennies on the dollar, no oil changes needed, no emission’s testing, likely much lower insurance rates, etc. Trying to make what should be boring commuter cars into fun electric cars is just a waste of batteries and money. If everyone drove boring Prius like non plug in hybrids for commuters but had fun and unique BEVs for their fun rides do you think the world would be worse off? By going that route we’d use our limited supplies of batteries most efficiently, with people’s in town vehicles being BEVs and their long distance high speed commuters being hybrids. It would make BEVs cheaper with less compromises for certain. Current-gen EVs both charge quickly and have pretty respectable range. Model Y has 318 miles, Model S has 405 miles. Lucid Air GT has 410 and Lucid Air upcoming Dream trim should be 520. That is more than a lot of gas cars! And with charging speed of many modern EVs, not just Tesla but like the Hyundai Ioniq 5, to charge up to 80% in 20 minute or less, means they are perfectly capable of long distance highway driving too. Considering our preferred storage container is the box curvy cars are not well suited for holding boxes, that’s why basically all semi truck trailers and all vans have rectangular shaped storage compartments. Stuff like Bjorn Nyland’s banana box test make a lot more sense that cubic ft of storage in a car like the Model Y. Honestly the frunk and the center console are rarely practical storage space. The F-150 lightning is a great example of having a usable frunk but that’s because they’re building it off an existing ICE platform that has a hood that is too long anywho. Center consoles can be useful but I’ve never heard anyone talk about how they need a deeper center console. Yes the advertised range of those vehicles is alright. But that’s brand new in optimal conditions going at very low speeds for highways nowadays, testing range at 80 MPH makes much more sense. So lets subtract a quarter of the advertised range. In winter they can lose half or more of their range. So halve that range. Now your Model Y has an ~119.25 mile range at highway speeds in the winter, and that’s without factoring in battery degradation with age and use. And the Model Y is no slouch in the BEV market. You can get a Rav4 Hybrid with AWD-e That gets 41 MPG HWY and 38 City for $30K. That’s less than half the price of the cheapest new Model Y with AWD. And I bet they’ll both last about the same amount of time on the road. That same Rav4 Hybrid uses a fraction of the batteries than the Model Y needs. Honestly I quite like the Model Y, though it’s a bit too cookie cutter for me. That being said the cost in batteries and the cost in pollution it takes to make those batteries is too great per car. I think the Batteries would be much more efficiently used in smaller cheaper BEV city cars to reduce pollution in the cities and more cheap fuel efficient hybrids to reduce pollution in general everywhere until better batteries can be made for cheaper out of materials that do not require tons of pollution to extract and refine. And it is a hatchback so it has the cargo capacity of approximately half a house. The Volt is actually a very space-inefficient design and even has less space that the smaller-looking Chevy Bolt. The target market for EVs should be people like me, multiple car owners, have a house and a garage, live in small cities or suburbs (where houses and garage space is relatively cheap). I would not want an electric as my only car, but would be fine with one as a commuter. I would be fine with 200 mile range, even a little less, more concerned with price equity with ICE and a little style. If course I have been shopping for a good condition first generation Honda Insight too (I love the single purpose design of the car, and like small cars), so I am probably kind of weird. If you really want an inexpensive EV, they’re out there. 2023 Chevy Bolt is $25,600 but when the tax credit gets renewed 1/1/23, it will start at $18,100. Compare that against a similarly sized gas hachback, like VW GTI which starts at $30k+, or even something like the Subaru Impreza or Toyota Corolla or Mazda3 which all start at $20k, or the Honda Civic which starts at $23k. Chevy Spark, Kia Rio, and Mitsubishi Mirage are the only other hatchbacks in the sub $20k area but they are all well-known penalty boxes. Personally, I will resist owning an EV as long as I am able. I see the appeal and practical applications for some people.. but for me, personally, I’m just not interested.
